Current ensemble forecasts from global models place Shanghai's August 4 maximum near 34–35 °C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with limited model spread supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Recent observations show daily highs of 37–38 °C through early August, but increasing cloud cover and potential afternoon convection could cap the peak slightly lower on the 4th. Historical August averages hover around 31–32 °C, so the current anomaly reflects strong ridging and high humidity that traders weigh against subtle steering-pattern shifts ahead of the final model runs. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated ECMWF/GFS outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the narrow gap between 34 °C and 35 °C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Шанхае 4 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Шанхае 4 августа?
34°C 37%
35°C 37%
33°C 17%
36°C 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 авг. 2026 г.
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
3%
33°C
17%
34°C
37%
35°C
37%
36°C
10%
37°C
2%
38°C
4%
39°C или выше
<1%
34°C 37%
35°C 37%
33°C 17%
36°C 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 авг. 2026 г.
29°C or below
$41 Объем
<1%
30°C
$113 Объем
1%
31°C
$74 Объем
2%
32°C
$266 Объем
3%
33°C
$648 Объем
17%
34°C
$277 Объем
37%
35°C
$797 Объем
37%
36°C
$128 Объем
10%
37°C
$63 Объем
2%
38°C
$125 Объем
4%
39°C или выше
$81 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models place Shanghai's August 4 maximum near 34–35 °C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with limited model spread supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Recent observations show daily highs of 37–38 °C through early August, but increasing cloud cover and potential afternoon convection could cap the peak slightly lower on the 4th. Historical August averages hover around 31–32 °C, so the current anomaly reflects strong ridging and high humidity that traders weigh against subtle steering-pattern shifts ahead of the final model runs. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated ECMWF/GFS outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the narrow gap between 34 °C and 35 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Объем
$2,613Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models place Shanghai's August 4 maximum near 34–35 °C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with limited model spread supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Recent observations show daily highs of 37–38 °C through early August, but increasing cloud cover and potential afternoon convection could cap the peak slightly lower on the 4th. Historical August averages hover around 31–32 °C, so the current anomaly reflects strong ridging and high humidity that traders weigh against subtle steering-pattern shifts ahead of the final model runs. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated ECMWF/GFS outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the narrow gap between 34 °C and 35 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$2,613Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global models place Shanghai's August 4 maximum near 34–35 °C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with limited model spread supporting the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Recent observations show daily highs of 37–38 °C through early August, but increasing cloud cover and potential afternoon convection could cap the peak slightly lower on the 4th. Historical August averages hover around 31–32 °C, so the current anomaly reflects strong ridging and high humidity that traders weigh against subtle steering-pattern shifts ahead of the final model runs. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated ECMWF/GFS outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the narrow gap between 34 °C and 35 °C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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