Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 29-30°C amid a persistent subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and highs exceeding April's climatological average of 27°C. Recent observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport recorded 30°C peaks on April 15-16 under partly cloudy skies, sustaining warmth, but slight model spreads hinge on afternoon sea breeze timing and cloud cover development—potentially capping at 28°C (20% implied) if onshore flow strengthens, or boosting to 31°C (26.5%) with delayed moderation and urban heat island effects. New China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble updates expected by April 17 evening could sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 18?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 18?
29°C 26%
31°C 26%
30°C 22%
28°C 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 апр. 2026 г.
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
20%
29°C
26%
30°C
22%
31°C
26%
32°C
10%
33°C or higher
3%
29°C 26%
31°C 26%
30°C 22%
28°C 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 апр. 2026 г.
23°C or below
$857 Объем
<1%
24°C
$1,657 Объем
<1%
25°C
$687 Объем
1%
26°C
$149 Объем
2%
27°C
$451 Объем
4%
28°C
$246 Объем
20%
29°C
$88 Объем
26%
30°C
$102 Объем
22%
31°C
$548 Объем
26%
32°C
$282 Объем
10%
33°C or higher
$367 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 29-30°C amid a persistent subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and highs exceeding April's climatological average of 27°C. Recent observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport recorded 30°C peaks on April 15-16 under partly cloudy skies, sustaining warmth, but slight model spreads hinge on afternoon sea breeze timing and cloud cover development—potentially capping at 28°C (20% implied) if onshore flow strengthens, or boosting to 31°C (26.5%) with delayed moderation and urban heat island effects. New China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble updates expected by April 17 evening could sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Объем
$5,434Дата окончания
18 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 12:27 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 29-30°C amid a persistent subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and highs exceeding April's climatological average of 27°C. Recent observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport recorded 30°C peaks on April 15-16 under partly cloudy skies, sustaining warmth, but slight model spreads hinge on afternoon sea breeze timing and cloud cover development—potentially capping at 28°C (20% implied) if onshore flow strengthens, or boosting to 31°C (26.5%) with delayed moderation and urban heat island effects. New China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble updates expected by April 17 evening could sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$5,434Дата окончания
18 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 12:27 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 29-30°C amid a persistent subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and highs exceeding April's climatological average of 27°C. Recent observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport recorded 30°C peaks on April 15-16 under partly cloudy skies, sustaining warmth, but slight model spreads hinge on afternoon sea breeze timing and cloud cover development—potentially capping at 28°C (20% implied) if onshore flow strengthens, or boosting to 31°C (26.5%) with delayed moderation and urban heat island effects. New China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble updates expected by April 17 evening could sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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