Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.