Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on May 24?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 24?
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$60,104 Объем
$60,104 Объем
24 мая 2026 г.
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$60,104 Объем
$60,104 Объем
24 мая 2026 г.
10°C or below
$6,298 Объем
No
11°C
$1,817 Объем
No
12°C
$4,081 Объем
No
13°C
$6,705 Объем
No
14°C
$8,186 Объем
No
15°C
$11,694 Объем
Yes
16°C
$9,315 Объем
No
17°C
$8,574 Объем
No
18°C
$1,614 Объем
No
19°C
$1,174 Объем
No
20°C or higher
$646 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Объем
$60,104Дата окончания
24 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$60,104Дата окончания
24 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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