**NASA's Artemis program restructuring has eliminated any realistic path to a crewed lunar landing before 2028, driving near-certain market consensus against a 2026 outcome.** In February 2026, NASA shifted Artemis III from a planned surface mission to a low-Earth orbit demonstration flight scheduled for 2027, moving the first landing to Artemis IV with an early-2028 target. Artemis II, the successful crewed Orion flyby completed in April 2026, validated deep-space systems but included no landing hardware or objectives. The Human Landing System (primarily SpaceX Starship) still requires extensive orbital refueling demonstrations and certification that have not progressed far enough for a 2026 attempt. No other government or commercial program has announced a viable 2026 crewed landing window, and historical patterns show NASA timelines slip rather than accelerate. While unforeseen technical breakthroughs or policy shifts remain theoretically possible, the compressed schedule from mid-2026 onward makes any reversal before year-end extraordinarily unlikely.