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Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

Market icon
Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

Моджтаба Хаменеи 37.8%

Реза Пехлеви 18%

Али Лариджани 9.9%

Масуд Пезешкиан 7%

Polymarket

$1,587,223 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи 37.8%

Реза Пехлеви 18%

Али Лариджани 9.9%

Масуд Пезешкиан 7%

Polymarket

$1,587,223 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи

$334,377 Объем

38%

Реза Пехлеви

$65,726 Объем

18%

Али Лариджани

$106,890 Объем

10%

Масуд Пезешкиан

$11,522 Объем

7%

Нет главы государства

$59,855 Объем

6%

Хасан Рухани

$116,025 Объем

3%

Алиреза Арафи

$52,494 Объем

3%

Марьям Раджави

$116,857 Объем

2%

Садег Лариджани

$84,097 Объем

2%

Хассан Хомейни

$38,581 Объем

2%

Махмуд Ахмадинежад

$28,392 Объем

1%

Ахмад Вahidi

$128,378 Объем

1%

Мохаммад Хатами

$105,174 Объем

1%

Аббас Арагчи

$38,827 Объем

1%

Мухаммад Мирбакири

$51,242 Объем

1%

Хассан Шариатмадари

$106,253 Объем

<1%

Али Мотахари

$34,510 Объем

<1%

Али Асгар Хеджази

$35,119 Объем

<1%

Навид Шомали

$7,367 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани

$6,375 Объем

<1%

Массуд Раджави

$5,617 Объем

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан

$4,237 Объем

<1%

Реза Пирзаде

$11,281 Объем

<1%

Мустафа Хиджри

$5,384 Объем

<1%

Гулам-Али Хаддад-Адель

$5,647 Объем

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммади

$4,457 Объем

<1%

Садег Махсули

$4,488 Объем

<1%

Саид Джалили

$9,389 Объем

<1%

Мохсен Араки

$5,243 Объем

<1%

Насир Хоссейни

$3,811 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$1,587,223
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Моджтаба Хаменеи" at 38%, followed by "Реза Пехлеви" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?" is "Моджтаба Хаменеи" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Реза Пехлеви" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.