Israel has conducted repeated airstrikes on Iranian targets since launching a major campaign alongside the US on February 28, 2026, severely degrading Tehran's missile capabilities, nuclear sites, and energy infrastructure. In the past week, strikes hit petrochemical complexes at Asaluyeh on April 6 and Mahshahr earlier, alongside attacks on the South Pars gas field, prompting Iranian retaliation threats and Strait of Hormuz closures. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7 offers de-escalation potential, though Israel continues Lebanon operations excluded from the deal and prepares further energy strikes pending US approval. Traders weigh diplomatic pressures, Trump's warnings, and escalation risks amid ongoing proxy conflicts and regional summit prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
НОВОЕ
$10,098 Объем
21 апр. 2026 г.
April 14
60%
April 21
67%
$10,098 Объем
April 14
$3,084 Объем
60%
April 21
$7,014 Объем
67%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel has conducted repeated airstrikes on Iranian targets since launching a major campaign alongside the US on February 28, 2026, severely degrading Tehran's missile capabilities, nuclear sites, and energy infrastructure. In the past week, strikes hit petrochemical complexes at Asaluyeh on April 6 and Mahshahr earlier, alongside attacks on the South Pars gas field, prompting Iranian retaliation threats and Strait of Hormuz closures. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7 offers de-escalation potential, though Israel continues Lebanon operations excluded from the deal and prepares further energy strikes pending US approval. Traders weigh diplomatic pressures, Trump's warnings, and escalation risks amid ongoing proxy conflicts and regional summit prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Объем
$10,098Дата окончания
21 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel has conducted repeated airstrikes on Iranian targets since launching a major campaign alongside the US on February 28, 2026, severely degrading Tehran's missile capabilities, nuclear sites, and energy infrastructure. In the past week, strikes hit petrochemical complexes at Asaluyeh on April 6 and Mahshahr earlier, alongside attacks on the South Pars gas field, prompting Iranian retaliation threats and Strait of Hormuz closures. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7 offers de-escalation potential, though Israel continues Lebanon operations excluded from the deal and prepares further energy strikes pending US approval. Traders weigh diplomatic pressures, Trump's warnings, and escalation risks amid ongoing proxy conflicts and regional summit prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$10,098Дата окончания
21 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel has conducted repeated airstrikes on Iranian targets since launching a major campaign alongside the US on February 28, 2026, severely degrading Tehran's missile capabilities, nuclear sites, and energy infrastructure. In the past week, strikes hit petrochemical complexes at Asaluyeh on April 6 and Mahshahr earlier, alongside attacks on the South Pars gas field, prompting Iranian retaliation threats and Strait of Hormuz closures. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7 offers de-escalation potential, though Israel continues Lebanon operations excluded from the deal and prepares further energy strikes pending US approval. Traders weigh diplomatic pressures, Trump's warnings, and escalation risks amid ongoing proxy conflicts and regional summit prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы