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Геополитика·забастовки

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?

Market icon
Геополитика·забастовки

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?

NEW
Apr 15, 2026
Polymarket

$22 Объем

Polymarket

15 апреля

$8 Объем

12%

April 30

$14 Объем

35%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$22
Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026
Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trader consensus on Israeli military action against Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment facility shows low implied probabilities, driven by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets that explicitly spared nuclear sites amid U.S. election pressures and de-escalation signals. Iran's installation of advanced centrifuges at the deeply buried Fordow site has raised IAEA non-compliance alarms, shortening estimated nuclear breakout timelines, yet diplomatic channels via Oman and Qatar persist. Recent catalysts include Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and ongoing Gaza operations, heightening regional tensions. Post-November 5 U.S. election dynamics and a mid-November IAEA board meeting could shift risk assessments.

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Текущий фаворит для «Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?» — «April 30» с 35%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 35%. Следующий ближайший исход — «15 апреля» с 12%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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