Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Miami shows the overnight low on August 11 hovering near 80–83 °F, with ensemble spreads creating the tight clustering of trader probabilities across the 78–85 °F bins. Primary scientific drivers include variable low-level moisture, patchy cloud cover that modulates radiational cooling, and the timing of any Atlantic seabreeze or weak tropical moisture surge, all of which can shift the minimum by 2–4 °F. Historical August climatology places typical Miami lows near 78 °F, but current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures near 86 °F favor slightly warmer readings unless clearer skies develop after midnight. Next model updates from the 00Z and 12Z cycles, plus any revised NHC or local forecast discussions, will likely narrow the range before the market resolves.