Recent cooler temperatures across the high-latitude Arctic Ocean in August 2026 slowed melt rates after an early-summer trajectory that tracked the 2012 record low, positioning the September minimum near typical post-2010 levels according to NSIDC observations. August average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest on record, with persistent open water in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas but reduced ice loss later in the season. This weather-driven moderation, alongside record-low winter volume entering the year, underpins the strong market-implied odds for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer outcome, consistent with the post-2007 range and 2025’s 4.60 million square kilometer minimum. The annual low is expected around mid-September.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 65.9%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 18.9%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км 2.9%
<4 млн кв км 1.7%
$77,924 Объем
$77,924 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
<4 млн кв км
2%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
1%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
27%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
67%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
3%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
1%
5+ млн кв. км
1%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 65.9%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 18.9%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км 2.9%
<4 млн кв км 1.7%
$77,924 Объем
$77,924 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
<4 млн кв км
$33,471 Объем
2%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
$7,382 Объем
1%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
$3,669 Объем
27%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
$4,008 Объем
67%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
$10,133 Объем
3%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
$4,266 Объем
1%
5+ млн кв. км
$14,995 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent cooler temperatures across the high-latitude Arctic Ocean in August 2026 slowed melt rates after an early-summer trajectory that tracked the 2012 record low, positioning the September minimum near typical post-2010 levels according to NSIDC observations. August average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest on record, with persistent open water in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas but reduced ice loss later in the season. This weather-driven moderation, alongside record-low winter volume entering the year, underpins the strong market-implied odds for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer outcome, consistent with the post-2007 range and 2025’s 4.60 million square kilometer minimum. The annual low is expected around mid-September.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Объем
$77,924Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent cooler temperatures across the high-latitude Arctic Ocean in August 2026 slowed melt rates after an early-summer trajectory that tracked the 2012 record low, positioning the September minimum near typical post-2010 levels according to NSIDC observations. August average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest on record, with persistent open water in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas but reduced ice loss later in the season. This weather-driven moderation, alongside record-low winter volume entering the year, underpins the strong market-implied odds for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer outcome, consistent with the post-2007 range and 2025’s 4.60 million square kilometer minimum. The annual low is expected around mid-September.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$77,924Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent cooler temperatures across the high-latitude Arctic Ocean in August 2026 slowed melt rates after an early-summer trajectory that tracked the 2012 record low, positioning the September minimum near typical post-2010 levels according to NSIDC observations. August average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest on record, with persistent open water in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas but reduced ice loss later in the season. This weather-driven moderation, alongside record-low winter volume entering the year, underpins the strong market-implied odds for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer outcome, consistent with the post-2007 range and 2025’s 4.60 million square kilometer minimum. The annual low is expected around mid-September.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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