Yabloko, Russia's liberal anti-war party, consistently polls at 2-3% in recent surveys ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, remaining well short of the 5% national threshold required for proportional representation seats. The party secured Central Election Commission registration of its federal list in late July and drew the second ballot position, yet faces ongoing candidate disqualifications, regional barriers, and a Supreme Court challenge from Rodina. Historical performance, including 1.34% in 2021, combined with the dominance of United Russia and limited scope for opposition gains in Russia's managed electoral system, underpins trader consensus that the party will again fall short. No recent polling surge or structural shift has altered this assessment.