Ukraine's official policy continues to prioritize NATO membership as a core security objective, with Allies reaffirming at recent summits an "irreversible path" toward eventual accession once conditions are met. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's early June 2026 visit to Kyiv underscored sustained partnership and interoperability support without any signals of Ukrainian neutrality commitments. No active bilateral or multilateral negotiations have produced a formal renunciation of membership aspirations ahead of the June 30 deadline, and Russia's longstanding demands for such a pledge remain unaccepted in current diplomatic channels. This sustained stance underpins trader consensus on the low likelihood of an agreement materializing in the remaining days. A sudden breakthrough in stalled peace talks incorporating explicit neutrality language could still shift dynamics before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$2,172,472 Объем
$2,172,472 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$2,172,472 Объем
$2,172,472 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's official policy continues to prioritize NATO membership as a core security objective, with Allies reaffirming at recent summits an "irreversible path" toward eventual accession once conditions are met. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's early June 2026 visit to Kyiv underscored sustained partnership and interoperability support without any signals of Ukrainian neutrality commitments. No active bilateral or multilateral negotiations have produced a formal renunciation of membership aspirations ahead of the June 30 deadline, and Russia's longstanding demands for such a pledge remain unaccepted in current diplomatic channels. This sustained stance underpins trader consensus on the low likelihood of an agreement materializing in the remaining days. A sudden breakthrough in stalled peace talks incorporating explicit neutrality language could still shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Открытие рынка: Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
Объем
$2,172,472Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's official policy continues to prioritize NATO membership as a core security objective, with Allies reaffirming at recent summits an "irreversible path" toward eventual accession once conditions are met. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's early June 2026 visit to Kyiv underscored sustained partnership and interoperability support without any signals of Ukrainian neutrality commitments. No active bilateral or multilateral negotiations have produced a formal renunciation of membership aspirations ahead of the June 30 deadline, and Russia's longstanding demands for such a pledge remain unaccepted in current diplomatic channels. This sustained stance underpins trader consensus on the low likelihood of an agreement materializing in the remaining days. A sudden breakthrough in stalled peace talks incorporating explicit neutrality language could still shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Объем
$2,172,472Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Ukraine's official policy continues to prioritize NATO membership as a core security objective, with Allies reaffirming at recent summits an "irreversible path" toward eventual accession once conditions are met. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's early June 2026 visit to Kyiv underscored sustained partnership and interoperability support without any signals of Ukrainian neutrality commitments. No active bilateral or multilateral negotiations have produced a formal renunciation of membership aspirations ahead of the June 30 deadline, and Russia's longstanding demands for such a pledge remain unaccepted in current diplomatic channels. This sustained stance underpins trader consensus on the low likelihood of an agreement materializing in the remaining days. A sudden breakthrough in stalled peace talks incorporating explicit neutrality language could still shift dynamics before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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