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Уйдет ли Клод на __ дней в апреле?

Market icon

Уйдет ли Клод на __ дней в апреле?

апр. 30

мая 31

апр. 30

мая 31

Более 12 85%

9-11 12%

6-8 <1%

Polymarket

$64,087 Объем

Более 12 85%

9-11 12%

6-8 <1%

Polymarket

$64,087 Объем

6-8

$9,482 Объем

<1%

9-11

$7,880 Объем

12%

Более 12

$14,437 Объем

85%

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in April (85.5% implied probability), reflecting 11 distinct incident days already recorded on Anthropic's status page through April 15—including elevated errors on Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code, plus model-specific issues with Sonnet 4.6. A recent cluster of disruptions on April 13 (Claude.ai login failures), 14 (degraded admin APIs), and 15 (widespread errors resolved after three hours) has amplified concerns over capacity constraints and scaling challenges as Anthropic pushes aggressive revenue growth amid AI competition. User backlash highlights persistent performance degradation, positioning 9-11 days (12%) as a hedge against stabilization, while lower buckets reflect skepticism of quick fixes before month-end. Ongoing monitoring of the status page remains key for traders.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Объем
$64,087
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in April (85.5% implied probability), reflecting 11 distinct incident days already recorded on Anthropic's status page through April 15—including elevated errors on Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code, plus model-specific issues with Sonnet 4.6. A recent cluster of disruptions on April 13 (Claude.ai login failures), 14 (degraded admin APIs), and 15 (widespread errors resolved after three hours) has amplified concerns over capacity constraints and scaling challenges as Anthropic pushes aggressive revenue growth amid AI competition. User backlash highlights persistent performance degradation, positioning 9-11 days (12%) as a hedge against stabilization, while lower buckets reflect skepticism of quick fixes before month-end. Ongoing monitoring of the status page remains key for traders.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Объем
$64,087
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Уйдет ли Клод на __ дней в апреле?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Более 12» с 85%, за ним следует «9-11» с 12%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 85¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 85%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Уйдет ли Клод на __ дней в апреле?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $64.1K с момента запуска рынка Mar 24, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Уйдет ли Клод на __ дней в апреле?», просмотри 5 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Уйдет ли Клод на __ дней в апреле?» — «Более 12» с 85%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 85%. Следующий ближайший исход — «9-11» с 12%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Уйдет ли Клод на __ дней в апреле?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.