Recent outages plaguing Anthropic's Claude large language model throughout March 2026—spanning at least six days including major disruptions on March 2, 11, 23, and 27—have fueled trader consensus for elevated downtime in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 9-11 days (34.5%) and 12+ days (37.0%). This reflects infrastructure strain from rapid scaling to chase OpenAI's revenue lead, high enterprise loads, and government adoption, as evidenced by status.anthropic.com reports of elevated errors and partial failures despite 98% monthly uptime. Competitive pressures in the AI sector amplify risks, with no announced fixes; traders eye April patterns and potential Claude updates as key swing factors before May resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУйдет ли Клод в отставку __ дней в мае?
Уйдет ли Клод в отставку __ дней в мае?
Более 12 37%
9-11 35%
6–8 25%
3-5 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мая 2026 г.
0-2
16%
3-5
20%
6–8
25%
9-11
35%
Более 12
37%
Более 12 37%
9-11 35%
6–8 25%
3-5 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мая 2026 г.
0-2
$17 Объем
16%
3-5
$0 Объем
20%
6–8
$0 Объем
25%
9-11
$0 Объем
35%
Более 12
$0 Объем
37%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages plaguing Anthropic's Claude large language model throughout March 2026—spanning at least six days including major disruptions on March 2, 11, 23, and 27—have fueled trader consensus for elevated downtime in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 9-11 days (34.5%) and 12+ days (37.0%). This reflects infrastructure strain from rapid scaling to chase OpenAI's revenue lead, high enterprise loads, and government adoption, as evidenced by status.anthropic.com reports of elevated errors and partial failures despite 98% monthly uptime. Competitive pressures in the AI sector amplify risks, with no announced fixes; traders eye April patterns and potential Claude updates as key swing factors before May resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Открытие рынка: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Объем
$17Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages plaguing Anthropic's Claude large language model throughout March 2026—spanning at least six days including major disruptions on March 2, 11, 23, and 27—have fueled trader consensus for elevated downtime in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 9-11 days (34.5%) and 12+ days (37.0%). This reflects infrastructure strain from rapid scaling to chase OpenAI's revenue lead, high enterprise loads, and government adoption, as evidenced by status.anthropic.com reports of elevated errors and partial failures despite 98% monthly uptime. Competitive pressures in the AI sector amplify risks, with no announced fixes; traders eye April patterns and potential Claude updates as key swing factors before May resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Объем
$17Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent outages plaguing Anthropic's Claude large language model throughout March 2026—spanning at least six days including major disruptions on March 2, 11, 23, and 27—have fueled trader consensus for elevated downtime in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 9-11 days (34.5%) and 12+ days (37.0%). This reflects infrastructure strain from rapid scaling to chase OpenAI's revenue lead, high enterprise loads, and government adoption, as evidenced by status.anthropic.com reports of elevated errors and partial failures despite 98% monthly uptime. Competitive pressures in the AI sector amplify risks, with no announced fixes; traders eye April patterns and potential Claude updates as key swing factors before May resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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