Recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and related Anthropic variants have driven Coding Arena Elo scores higher through improved agentic reasoning on real-world tasks, with independent harnesses showing 96%+ on SWE-bench Verified as of September 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol series and open-weight challengers like DeepSeek V4 and Qwen3.8 models maintain competitive pressure via frequent updates and lower-cost scaling. Trader sentiment reflects this trajectory, pricing strong odds for thresholds around 1560–1580 by year-end given four months remaining and historical monthly gains of 30–50 Elo points at the frontier. Key swing factors include additional model drops, context-window expansions, and agent tooling before December 31, though leaderboard volatility and benchmark saturation could moderate gains.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
$192,448 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
1560
33%
1580
20%
1600
13%
$192,448 Объем
1560
$92,417 Объем
33%
1580
$65,941 Объем
20%
1600
$34,089 Объем
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and related Anthropic variants have driven Coding Arena Elo scores higher through improved agentic reasoning on real-world tasks, with independent harnesses showing 96%+ on SWE-bench Verified as of September 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol series and open-weight challengers like DeepSeek V4 and Qwen3.8 models maintain competitive pressure via frequent updates and lower-cost scaling. Trader sentiment reflects this trajectory, pricing strong odds for thresholds around 1560–1580 by year-end given four months remaining and historical monthly gains of 30–50 Elo points at the frontier. Key swing factors include additional model drops, context-window expansions, and agent tooling before December 31, though leaderboard volatility and benchmark saturation could moderate gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
Объем
$192,448Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and related Anthropic variants have driven Coding Arena Elo scores higher through improved agentic reasoning on real-world tasks, with independent harnesses showing 96%+ on SWE-bench Verified as of September 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol series and open-weight challengers like DeepSeek V4 and Qwen3.8 models maintain competitive pressure via frequent updates and lower-cost scaling. Trader sentiment reflects this trajectory, pricing strong odds for thresholds around 1560–1580 by year-end given four months remaining and historical monthly gains of 30–50 Elo points at the frontier. Key swing factors include additional model drops, context-window expansions, and agent tooling before December 31, though leaderboard volatility and benchmark saturation could moderate gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$192,448Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and related Anthropic variants have driven Coding Arena Elo scores higher through improved agentic reasoning on real-world tasks, with independent harnesses showing 96%+ on SWE-bench Verified as of September 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol series and open-weight challengers like DeepSeek V4 and Qwen3.8 models maintain competitive pressure via frequent updates and lower-cost scaling. Trader sentiment reflects this trajectory, pricing strong odds for thresholds around 1560–1580 by year-end given four months remaining and historical monthly gains of 30–50 Elo points at the frontier. Key swing factors include additional model drops, context-window expansions, and agent tooling before December 31, though leaderboard volatility and benchmark saturation could moderate gains.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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