Trader consensus positions Google as the frontrunner with a 60% implied probability for the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, propelled by Gemini 1.5 Pro's sustained high ELO rankings around 1280 amid fierce competition. OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and Zhipu AI's (Z.ai) newly released GLM-4, both at 43.5%, vie for top-two spots after GLM-4's strong April benchmarks in coding and reasoning, edging out xAI's Grok-1.5 (42%) hampered by limited API access. Recent catalysts include Alibaba's Qwen2 preview on April 29 topping leaderboards temporarily, Moonshot's Kimi updates boosting long-context scores to 39.5%, and Mistral's efficiency gains, while Anthropic's Claude 3 lags at 29.5% due to Opus's plateau. Uncertainties persist with final ELO snapshots and potential last-minute releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the third best AI model end of April?
Which company has the third best AI model end of April?
Google 62%
OpenAI 45%
DeepSeek 44%
ByteDance 44%

62%

OpenAI
45%

DeepSeek
44%

ByteDance
44%

Amazon
44%

xAI
44%

Z.ai
39%

Mistral
38%

Moonshot
36%

Baidu
34%

Alibaba
32%

Anthropic
30%

Meituan
27%
Google 62%
OpenAI 45%
DeepSeek 44%
ByteDance 44%

62%

OpenAI
45%

DeepSeek
44%

ByteDance
44%

Amazon
44%

xAI
44%

Z.ai
39%

Mistral
38%

Moonshot
36%

Baidu
34%

Alibaba
32%

Anthropic
30%

Meituan
27%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions Google as the frontrunner with a 60% implied probability for the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, propelled by Gemini 1.5 Pro's sustained high ELO rankings around 1280 amid fierce competition. OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and Zhipu AI's (Z.ai) newly released GLM-4, both at 43.5%, vie for top-two spots after GLM-4's strong April benchmarks in coding and reasoning, edging out xAI's Grok-1.5 (42%) hampered by limited API access. Recent catalysts include Alibaba's Qwen2 preview on April 29 topping leaderboards temporarily, Moonshot's Kimi updates boosting long-context scores to 39.5%, and Mistral's efficiency gains, while Anthropic's Claude 3 lags at 29.5% due to Opus's plateau. Uncertainties persist with final ELO snapshots and potential last-minute releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы