Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward xAI claiming the #3 AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of April, buoyed by Grok-1.5V's April 12 release and its rapid Elo climb via strong multimodal vision benchmarks that edged out rivals in blind user votes. Google’s Gemini 1.5 Pro (34.5% odds) contends with its million-token context window for complex reasoning tasks, while Anthropic’s Claude 3 Opus matches at 34.5% on safety-aligned performance; the neck-and-neck dynamic stems from volatile Arena shifts, where xAI's fresh momentum differentiates from incumbents' established but plateauing scores, sidelining frontrunners like OpenAI to lower 21% probabilities as they dominate top spots.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
xAI 40%
Google 35%
Anthropic 35%
Alibaba 22%

xAI
40%

35%

Anthropic
35%

Alibaba
22%

ByteDance
21%

Moonshot
21%

Z.ai
21%

DeepSeek
21%

OpenAI
21%

Baidu
21%

Amazon
21%

Mistral
21%

Meituan
21%
xAI 40%
Google 35%
Anthropic 35%
Alibaba 22%

xAI
40%

35%

Anthropic
35%

Alibaba
22%

ByteDance
21%

Moonshot
21%

Z.ai
21%

DeepSeek
21%

OpenAI
21%

Baidu
21%

Amazon
21%

Mistral
21%

Meituan
21%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward xAI claiming the #3 AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of April, buoyed by Grok-1.5V's April 12 release and its rapid Elo climb via strong multimodal vision benchmarks that edged out rivals in blind user votes. Google’s Gemini 1.5 Pro (34.5% odds) contends with its million-token context window for complex reasoning tasks, while Anthropic’s Claude 3 Opus matches at 34.5% on safety-aligned performance; the neck-and-neck dynamic stems from volatile Arena shifts, where xAI's fresh momentum differentiates from incumbents' established but plateauing scores, sidelining frontrunners like OpenAI to lower 21% probabilities as they dominate top spots.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы