Anthropic commands the highest 38.5% implied probability for topping the AI model rankings by April's end, driven by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's unchallenged lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—currently holding the top Elo score across overall, coding, and style-controlled evaluations. Mistral's 22% odds surge on recent Large 2 releases excelling in efficiency and multilingual benchmarks, challenging incumbents. Alibaba at 21.5% benefits from Qwen2.5's rapid climbs in open leaderboards, while Google's 18.5% and others like DeepSeek hinge on unconfirmed Gemini 2.0 and proprietary upgrades. Traders eye volatile pre-release benchmarks and potential delays as key catalysts shifting consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 39%
Mistral 22%
Alibaba 20%
Google 19%
$14,840 Объем
$14,840 Объем

Anthropic
39%

Mistral
22%

Alibaba
20%

19%

Amazon
18%

DeepSeek
16%

ByteDance
16%

OpenAI
16%

xAI
16%

Z.ai
15%

Meituan
15%

Moonshot
11%

Baidu
6%
Anthropic 39%
Mistral 22%
Alibaba 20%
Google 19%
$14,840 Объем
$14,840 Объем

Anthropic
39%

Mistral
22%

Alibaba
20%

19%

Amazon
18%

DeepSeek
16%

ByteDance
16%

OpenAI
16%

xAI
16%

Z.ai
15%

Meituan
15%

Moonshot
11%

Baidu
6%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands the highest 38.5% implied probability for topping the AI model rankings by April's end, driven by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's unchallenged lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—currently holding the top Elo score across overall, coding, and style-controlled evaluations. Mistral's 22% odds surge on recent Large 2 releases excelling in efficiency and multilingual benchmarks, challenging incumbents. Alibaba at 21.5% benefits from Qwen2.5's rapid climbs in open leaderboards, while Google's 18.5% and others like DeepSeek hinge on unconfirmed Gemini 2.0 and proprietary upgrades. Traders eye volatile pre-release benchmarks and potential delays as key catalysts shifting consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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