The closely contested 50.5% implied probability for acquittal reflects the Philippine Senate's composition and the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes required for conviction in the ongoing impeachment trial. A substantial bloc of senators maintains ties to the Duterte political network, limiting cross-aisle support despite the House's May 2026 transmission of articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and related charges. The trial, which opened in July and continues with witness testimony into September, features extended proceedings that could expose new evidence or procedural disputes capable of shifting senator-judges. Developments such as compelling prosecution presentations, Supreme Court interventions, or realignments ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline could alter the balance by influencing undecided votes or prompting abstentions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
50% вероятность
$12,052 Объем
$12,052 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
50% вероятность
$12,052 Объем
$12,052 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely contested 50.5% implied probability for acquittal reflects the Philippine Senate's composition and the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes required for conviction in the ongoing impeachment trial. A substantial bloc of senators maintains ties to the Duterte political network, limiting cross-aisle support despite the House's May 2026 transmission of articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and related charges. The trial, which opened in July and continues with witness testimony into September, features extended proceedings that could expose new evidence or procedural disputes capable of shifting senator-judges. Developments such as compelling prosecution presentations, Supreme Court interventions, or realignments ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline could alter the balance by influencing undecided votes or prompting abstentions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Открытие рынка: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Объем
$12,052Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely contested 50.5% implied probability for acquittal reflects the Philippine Senate's composition and the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes required for conviction in the ongoing impeachment trial. A substantial bloc of senators maintains ties to the Duterte political network, limiting cross-aisle support despite the House's May 2026 transmission of articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and related charges. The trial, which opened in July and continues with witness testimony into September, features extended proceedings that could expose new evidence or procedural disputes capable of shifting senator-judges. Developments such as compelling prosecution presentations, Supreme Court interventions, or realignments ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline could alter the balance by influencing undecided votes or prompting abstentions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Объем
$12,052Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 50.5% implied probability for acquittal reflects the Philippine Senate's composition and the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes required for conviction in the ongoing impeachment trial. A substantial bloc of senators maintains ties to the Duterte political network, limiting cross-aisle support despite the House's May 2026 transmission of articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and related charges. The trial, which opened in July and continues with witness testimony into September, features extended proceedings that could expose new evidence or procedural disputes capable of shifting senator-judges. Developments such as compelling prosecution presentations, Supreme Court interventions, or realignments ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline could alter the balance by influencing undecided votes or prompting abstentions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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