The closely contested 52.5% implied probability for conviction in the Philippine Senate reflects the two-thirds threshold of 16 out of 24 senator-judges required under the Constitution, balanced against a bloc of Duterte-aligned members including allies such as Imee Marcos, Robin Padilla, and others with established family or political ties. The House transmitted articles of impeachment in May 2026 alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and threats against President Marcos, prompting the Senate trial's opening on July 6 with ongoing witness presentations on financial records and related charges as of early September. Recent procedural rulings by the Supreme Court have allowed proceedings to advance without suspension, while absences or detentions among some senators introduce variables in vote arithmetic. Developments such as shifts in senator alignments, additional evidence on specific articles, or further absences could alter the balance before any final vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
53% вероятность
$12,038 Объем
$12,038 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
53% вероятность
$12,038 Объем
$12,038 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely contested 52.5% implied probability for conviction in the Philippine Senate reflects the two-thirds threshold of 16 out of 24 senator-judges required under the Constitution, balanced against a bloc of Duterte-aligned members including allies such as Imee Marcos, Robin Padilla, and others with established family or political ties. The House transmitted articles of impeachment in May 2026 alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and threats against President Marcos, prompting the Senate trial's opening on July 6 with ongoing witness presentations on financial records and related charges as of early September. Recent procedural rulings by the Supreme Court have allowed proceedings to advance without suspension, while absences or detentions among some senators introduce variables in vote arithmetic. Developments such as shifts in senator alignments, additional evidence on specific articles, or further absences could alter the balance before any final vote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Открытие рынка: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Объем
$12,038Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely contested 52.5% implied probability for conviction in the Philippine Senate reflects the two-thirds threshold of 16 out of 24 senator-judges required under the Constitution, balanced against a bloc of Duterte-aligned members including allies such as Imee Marcos, Robin Padilla, and others with established family or political ties. The House transmitted articles of impeachment in May 2026 alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and threats against President Marcos, prompting the Senate trial's opening on July 6 with ongoing witness presentations on financial records and related charges as of early September. Recent procedural rulings by the Supreme Court have allowed proceedings to advance without suspension, while absences or detentions among some senators introduce variables in vote arithmetic. Developments such as shifts in senator alignments, additional evidence on specific articles, or further absences could alter the balance before any final vote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Объем
$12,038Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 52.5% implied probability for conviction in the Philippine Senate reflects the two-thirds threshold of 16 out of 24 senator-judges required under the Constitution, balanced against a bloc of Duterte-aligned members including allies such as Imee Marcos, Robin Padilla, and others with established family or political ties. The House transmitted articles of impeachment in May 2026 alleging misuse of confidential funds, graft, and threats against President Marcos, prompting the Senate trial's opening on July 6 with ongoing witness presentations on financial records and related charges as of early September. Recent procedural rulings by the Supreme Court have allowed proceedings to advance without suspension, while absences or detentions among some senators introduce variables in vote arithmetic. Developments such as shifts in senator alignments, additional evidence on specific articles, or further absences could alter the balance before any final vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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