Republican control of the House remains the dominant barrier to impeaching President Trump, as a simple majority vote on articles is required to advance the process. The September 15, 2026, vote tabling Rep. Al Green’s resolution—charging abuse of power through ICE and CBP operations—passed 232-147, with Democratic leaders voting present and only 147 members supporting advancement. This outcome aligns with prior failed attempts and reflects limited bipartisan support. Traders price low probabilities for House passage by year-end, consistent with historical patterns where unified opposition-party control is typically needed. The November 2026 midterms represent the clearest near-term catalyst that could alter these dynamics if Democrats gain a majority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHouse kills Al Green’s eighth attempt to impeach President Trump
December 31, 2027 jumps to 52%8%
On September 17, 2026, the Republican-controlled House rejected another impeachment effort by Al Green, voting to table the resolution before a vote on the merits, reflecting ongoing political challenges and impacting market sentiment.



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