Tropical Storm Odalys, currently at 45 knots with a central pressure of 1002 mb near 14.3°N 130.3°W, shows modest organization amid decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. National Hurricane Center guidance projects gradual intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 36 hours, yet objective satellite estimates range lower and some earlier model runs showed limited strengthening. Dry-air entrainment expected later in the week introduces realistic scenarios for the storm to remain below hurricane intensity, supporting the market-implied 56.5% probability on “No.” Traders are weighting near-term observational data and forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model runs and advisory updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоТропический шторм Одалис усиливается до урагана?
Тропический шторм Одалис усиливается до урагана?
Да
50% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
50% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Odalys, currently at 45 knots with a central pressure of 1002 mb near 14.3°N 130.3°W, shows modest organization amid decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. National Hurricane Center guidance projects gradual intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 36 hours, yet objective satellite estimates range lower and some earlier model runs showed limited strengthening. Dry-air entrainment expected later in the week introduces realistic scenarios for the storm to remain below hurricane intensity, supporting the market-implied 56.5% probability on “No.” Traders are weighting near-term observational data and forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model runs and advisory updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Объем
$1,600Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Odalys, currently at 45 knots with a central pressure of 1002 mb near 14.3°N 130.3°W, shows modest organization amid decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. National Hurricane Center guidance projects gradual intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 36 hours, yet objective satellite estimates range lower and some earlier model runs showed limited strengthening. Dry-air entrainment expected later in the week introduces realistic scenarios for the storm to remain below hurricane intensity, supporting the market-implied 56.5% probability on “No.” Traders are weighting near-term observational data and forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model runs and advisory updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Объем
$1,600Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Odalys, currently at 45 knots with a central pressure of 1002 mb near 14.3°N 130.3°W, shows modest organization amid decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. National Hurricane Center guidance projects gradual intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 36 hours, yet objective satellite estimates range lower and some earlier model runs showed limited strengthening. Dry-air entrainment expected later in the week introduces realistic scenarios for the storm to remain below hurricane intensity, supporting the market-implied 56.5% probability on “No.” Traders are weighting near-term observational data and forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model runs and advisory updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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