Anthropic’s February 2026 launch of Claude Opus 4.6 with adaptive thinking mode has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the claude-opus-4-6-thinking outcome, as the model’s ability to dynamically allocate reasoning depth has produced leading results on complex coding benchmarks and long-running agentic tasks. Recent third-party evaluations continue to highlight its edge in instruction following and multi-step problem solving relative to Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, reinforcing the current market-implied odds near 100 percent. While this positioning appears durable, a major capability jump from a competing frontier model or an unexpected deprecation announcement could still shift sentiment before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
gemini-3-pro <1%
$33,061 ปริมาณ
$33,061 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
claude-opus-4-6
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
No
gemini-3-pro
No
gpt-5.5-high
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
muse-spark
No
Other
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
No
claude-opus-4-7
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
gemini-3-pro <1%
$33,061 ปริมาณ
$33,061 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
claude-opus-4-6
$3,181 ปริมาณ
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$5,233 ปริมาณ
No
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 ปริมาณ
No
gpt-5.5-high
$2,605 ปริมาณ
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$9,522 ปริมาณ
Yes
muse-spark
$1,218 ปริมาณ
No
Other
$3,813 ปริมาณ
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 ปริมาณ
No
claude-opus-4-7
$4,863 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s February 2026 launch of Claude Opus 4.6 with adaptive thinking mode has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the claude-opus-4-6-thinking outcome, as the model’s ability to dynamically allocate reasoning depth has produced leading results on complex coding benchmarks and long-running agentic tasks. Recent third-party evaluations continue to highlight its edge in instruction following and multi-step problem solving relative to Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, reinforcing the current market-implied odds near 100 percent. While this positioning appears durable, a major capability jump from a competing frontier model or an unexpected deprecation announcement could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,061วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: Yes
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s February 2026 launch of Claude Opus 4.6 with adaptive thinking mode has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the claude-opus-4-6-thinking outcome, as the model’s ability to dynamically allocate reasoning depth has produced leading results on complex coding benchmarks and long-running agentic tasks. Recent third-party evaluations continue to highlight its edge in instruction following and multi-step problem solving relative to Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, reinforcing the current market-implied odds near 100 percent. While this positioning appears durable, a major capability jump from a competing frontier model or an unexpected deprecation announcement could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,061วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: Yes
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: Yes
Anthropic’s February 2026 launch of Claude Opus 4.6 with adaptive thinking mode has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the claude-opus-4-6-thinking outcome, as the model’s ability to dynamically allocate reasoning depth has produced leading results on complex coding benchmarks and long-running agentic tasks. Recent third-party evaluations continue to highlight its edge in instruction following and multi-step problem solving relative to Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, reinforcing the current market-implied odds near 100 percent. While this positioning appears durable, a major capability jump from a competing frontier model or an unexpected deprecation announcement could still shift sentiment before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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