Recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has lifted its implied odds to 23.5% by delivering top scores on Artificial Analysis benchmarks and gains in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and science tasks, yet "Other" holds the lead at 32.5% amid strong showings from non-Anthropic models. Claude Opus 5 at 27% benefits from near-parity performance on coding and agentic search at half the price of Fable variants, while the restricted Mythos 5.1 sibling and earlier Opus releases add fragmentation. Traders weigh Fable 5.1's capability edge against cost, availability, and potential new releases or benchmark shifts before the September 21 resolution, with the tight spread reflecting uncertainty over which model will lead independent leaderboards.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOther 33%
claude-opus-5-high 27%
claude-fable-5.1-max 24%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
Other
33%
claude-opus-5-high
27%
claude-fable-5.1-max
24%
claude-opus-5-max
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
5%
Other 33%
claude-opus-5-high 27%
claude-fable-5.1-max 24%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
Other
$80 ปริมาณ
33%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$96 ปริมาณ
24%
claude-opus-5-max
$0 ปริมาณ
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$97 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has lifted its implied odds to 23.5% by delivering top scores on Artificial Analysis benchmarks and gains in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and science tasks, yet "Other" holds the lead at 32.5% amid strong showings from non-Anthropic models. Claude Opus 5 at 27% benefits from near-parity performance on coding and agentic search at half the price of Fable variants, while the restricted Mythos 5.1 sibling and earlier Opus releases add fragmentation. Traders weigh Fable 5.1's capability edge against cost, availability, and potential new releases or benchmark shifts before the September 21 resolution, with the tight spread reflecting uncertainty over which model will lead independent leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$272วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has lifted its implied odds to 23.5% by delivering top scores on Artificial Analysis benchmarks and gains in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and science tasks, yet "Other" holds the lead at 32.5% amid strong showings from non-Anthropic models. Claude Opus 5 at 27% benefits from near-parity performance on coding and agentic search at half the price of Fable variants, while the restricted Mythos 5.1 sibling and earlier Opus releases add fragmentation. Traders weigh Fable 5.1's capability edge against cost, availability, and potential new releases or benchmark shifts before the September 21 resolution, with the tight spread reflecting uncertainty over which model will lead independent leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$272วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has lifted its implied odds to 23.5% by delivering top scores on Artificial Analysis benchmarks and gains in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and science tasks, yet "Other" holds the lead at 32.5% amid strong showings from non-Anthropic models. Claude Opus 5 at 27% benefits from near-parity performance on coding and agentic search at half the price of Fable variants, while the restricted Mythos 5.1 sibling and earlier Opus releases add fragmentation. Traders weigh Fable 5.1's capability edge against cost, availability, and potential new releases or benchmark shifts before the September 21 resolution, with the tight spread reflecting uncertainty over which model will lead independent leaderboards.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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