Incumbent Ami Bera's decision to run in the redrawn CA-03 has left CA-06—an open seat with a Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and a 52.6% Kamala Harris margin in 2024—as the dominant factor driving trader consensus toward Democrats at over 90% implied probability. California's top-two primary on June 2 features five Democrats (including former Sen. Richard Pan and Sacramento DA Thien Ho) against fundraising leader Kevin Kiley (no party preference) and one other Republican, positioning two Democrats to likely advance to November. Recent candidate forums, such as the April 22 debate, saw Democrats intensify attacks on Kiley over local issues like housing and public safety. A GOP hold would require Kiley topping the primary amid consolidated turnout, a midterm Republican wave, or Democratic nominee scandals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,506 ปริมาณ
92%
Republican Party
$266 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ami Bera's decision to run in the redrawn CA-03 has left CA-06—an open seat with a Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and a 52.6% Kamala Harris margin in 2024—as the dominant factor driving trader consensus toward Democrats at over 90% implied probability. California's top-two primary on June 2 features five Democrats (including former Sen. Richard Pan and Sacramento DA Thien Ho) against fundraising leader Kevin Kiley (no party preference) and one other Republican, positioning two Democrats to likely advance to November. Recent candidate forums, such as the April 22 debate, saw Democrats intensify attacks on Kiley over local issues like housing and public safety. A GOP hold would require Kiley topping the primary amid consolidated turnout, a midterm Republican wave, or Democratic nominee scandals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,772วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ami Bera's decision to run in the redrawn CA-03 has left CA-06—an open seat with a Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and a 52.6% Kamala Harris margin in 2024—as the dominant factor driving trader consensus toward Democrats at over 90% implied probability. California's top-two primary on June 2 features five Democrats (including former Sen. Richard Pan and Sacramento DA Thien Ho) against fundraising leader Kevin Kiley (no party preference) and one other Republican, positioning two Democrats to likely advance to November. Recent candidate forums, such as the April 22 debate, saw Democrats intensify attacks on Kiley over local issues like housing and public safety. A GOP hold would require Kiley topping the primary amid consolidated turnout, a midterm Republican wave, or Democratic nominee scandals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,772วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Ami Bera's decision to run in the redrawn CA-03 has left CA-06—an open seat with a Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and a 52.6% Kamala Harris margin in 2024—as the dominant factor driving trader consensus toward Democrats at over 90% implied probability. California's top-two primary on June 2 features five Democrats (including former Sen. Richard Pan and Sacramento DA Thien Ho) against fundraising leader Kevin Kiley (no party preference) and one other Republican, positioning two Democrats to likely advance to November. Recent candidate forums, such as the April 22 debate, saw Democrats intensify attacks on Kiley over local issues like housing and public safety. A GOP hold would require Kiley topping the primary amid consolidated turnout, a midterm Republican wave, or Democratic nominee scandals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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