Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's unopposed path in California's 12th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus to a 94% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory, reflecting the certified candidate list with no Republican entrants past the March filing deadline. This East Bay progressive stronghold, previously held by Barbara Lee, delivered overwhelming Democratic margins in recent cycles, bolstered by Simon's incumbency advantage and fundraising lead exceeding $1 million. While a dark-horse primary challenger could theoretically advance to the November 3 general, historical base rates in safe Democratic districts and low GOP turnout make Republican success improbable barring unprecedented scandal, health issues for Simon, or national midterm wave.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$29,870 ปริมาณ
$29,870 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
$29,870 ปริมาณ
$29,870 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,576 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$11,294 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's unopposed path in California's 12th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus to a 94% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory, reflecting the certified candidate list with no Republican entrants past the March filing deadline. This East Bay progressive stronghold, previously held by Barbara Lee, delivered overwhelming Democratic margins in recent cycles, bolstered by Simon's incumbency advantage and fundraising lead exceeding $1 million. While a dark-horse primary challenger could theoretically advance to the November 3 general, historical base rates in safe Democratic districts and low GOP turnout make Republican success improbable barring unprecedented scandal, health issues for Simon, or national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,870วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's unopposed path in California's 12th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus to a 94% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory, reflecting the certified candidate list with no Republican entrants past the March filing deadline. This East Bay progressive stronghold, previously held by Barbara Lee, delivered overwhelming Democratic margins in recent cycles, bolstered by Simon's incumbency advantage and fundraising lead exceeding $1 million. While a dark-horse primary challenger could theoretically advance to the November 3 general, historical base rates in safe Democratic districts and low GOP turnout make Republican success improbable barring unprecedented scandal, health issues for Simon, or national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,870วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's unopposed path in California's 12th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2 drives trader consensus to a 94% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory, reflecting the certified candidate list with no Republican entrants past the March filing deadline. This East Bay progressive stronghold, previously held by Barbara Lee, delivered overwhelming Democratic margins in recent cycles, bolstered by Simon's incumbency advantage and fundraising lead exceeding $1 million. While a dark-horse primary challenger could theoretically advance to the November 3 general, historical base rates in safe Democratic districts and low GOP turnout make Republican success improbable barring unprecedented scandal, health issues for Simon, or national midterm wave.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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