Trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 93.5% to retain California's 18th Congressional District due to longtime incumbent Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position in a solidly Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16. Lofgren, first elected in 1994, holds a massive fundraising edge—over $1.5 million raised and $580,000 cash on hand as of late March—dwarfing underfunded primary challengers Luis Acevedo-Arreguin (D), Chris Demers (no party preference), and Shane Lewis (R), all lacking prior elected experience. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Lofgren is poised to advance easily. Realistic challenges include a surprise strong Republican primary showing, Lofgren health issues given her age, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents favor the incumbent in this safe district.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-18 House Election Winner
CA-18 House Election Winner
$31,169 ปริมาณ
$31,169 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
$31,169 ปริมาณ
$31,169 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,251 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$14,918 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 93.5% to retain California's 18th Congressional District due to longtime incumbent Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position in a solidly Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16. Lofgren, first elected in 1994, holds a massive fundraising edge—over $1.5 million raised and $580,000 cash on hand as of late March—dwarfing underfunded primary challengers Luis Acevedo-Arreguin (D), Chris Demers (no party preference), and Shane Lewis (R), all lacking prior elected experience. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Lofgren is poised to advance easily. Realistic challenges include a surprise strong Republican primary showing, Lofgren health issues given her age, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents favor the incumbent in this safe district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,169วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 93.5% to retain California's 18th Congressional District due to longtime incumbent Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position in a solidly Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16. Lofgren, first elected in 1994, holds a massive fundraising edge—over $1.5 million raised and $580,000 cash on hand as of late March—dwarfing underfunded primary challengers Luis Acevedo-Arreguin (D), Chris Demers (no party preference), and Shane Lewis (R), all lacking prior elected experience. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Lofgren is poised to advance easily. Realistic challenges include a surprise strong Republican primary showing, Lofgren health issues given her age, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents favor the incumbent in this safe district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,169วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 93.5% to retain California's 18th Congressional District due to longtime incumbent Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position in a solidly Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16. Lofgren, first elected in 1994, holds a massive fundraising edge—over $1.5 million raised and $580,000 cash on hand as of late March—dwarfing underfunded primary challengers Luis Acevedo-Arreguin (D), Chris Demers (no party preference), and Shane Lewis (R), all lacking prior elected experience. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Lofgren is poised to advance easily. Realistic challenges include a surprise strong Republican primary showing, Lofgren health issues given her age, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents favor the incumbent in this safe district.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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