Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest in the Farrer by-election, with independent Michelle Milthorpe edging One Nation's David Farley amid a fragmented field of 12 candidates following Sussan Ley's resignation from the safe Liberal seat. March polls showed Milthorpe and Farley dominating primary votes ahead of Liberal Raissa Butkowski, but preference flows from the conservative vote—via how-to-vote cards and Liberal/National dynamics—remain pivotal under preferential voting, keeping odds within 10 points. Recent developments include Milthorpe's funding boost from Climate 200 backers, Farley's irrigator-focused water policy push against Murray-Darling buybacks, and a Facebook post controversy denting One Nation momentum. Ballot draw placed Butkowski first, potentially aiding Liberal preferences; late endorsements, debates, or turnout in rural southwest NSW could tip the May 9 result.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarrer By-Election Winner
Farrer By-Election Winner
Michelle Milthorpe 53%
David Farley 43%
Raissa Butkowski 5.2%
Rebecca Scriven 1.0%
$139,530 ปริมาณ
$139,530 ปริมาณ
Michelle Milthorpe
53%
David Farley
43%
Raissa Butkowski
5%
Rebecca Scriven
1%
Helen Dalton
1%
Michelle Milthorpe 53%
David Farley 43%
Raissa Butkowski 5.2%
Rebecca Scriven 1.0%
$139,530 ปริมาณ
$139,530 ปริมาณ
Michelle Milthorpe
53%
David Farley
43%
Raissa Butkowski
5%
Rebecca Scriven
1%
Helen Dalton
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest in the Farrer by-election, with independent Michelle Milthorpe edging One Nation's David Farley amid a fragmented field of 12 candidates following Sussan Ley's resignation from the safe Liberal seat. March polls showed Milthorpe and Farley dominating primary votes ahead of Liberal Raissa Butkowski, but preference flows from the conservative vote—via how-to-vote cards and Liberal/National dynamics—remain pivotal under preferential voting, keeping odds within 10 points. Recent developments include Milthorpe's funding boost from Climate 200 backers, Farley's irrigator-focused water policy push against Murray-Darling buybacks, and a Facebook post controversy denting One Nation momentum. Ballot draw placed Butkowski first, potentially aiding Liberal preferences; late endorsements, debates, or turnout in rural southwest NSW could tip the May 9 result.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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