Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a mix of showers and variable cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 4 that is likely to limit peak insolation and keep the daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Persistent humidity, southeasterly flow, and possible convective activity introduce uncertainty, as thicker cloud decks or earlier rainfall can suppress temperatures by 1–2 °C through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings to reach 31 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 28–31 °C outcomes. Updated numerical guidance and Hong Kong Observatory briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
29°C 33%
30°C 30%
28°C 22%
31°C 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
22%
29°C
33%
30°C
30%
31°C
13%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 33%
30°C 30%
28°C 22%
31°C 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
$185 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$174 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$105 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$174 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$200 ปริมาณ
6%
28°C
$268 ปริมาณ
22%
29°C
$187 ปริมาณ
33%
30°C
$500 ปริมาณ
30%
31°C
$234 ปริมาณ
13%
32°C
$254 ปริมาณ
3%
33°C or higher
$291 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a mix of showers and variable cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 4 that is likely to limit peak insolation and keep the daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Persistent humidity, southeasterly flow, and possible convective activity introduce uncertainty, as thicker cloud decks or earlier rainfall can suppress temperatures by 1–2 °C through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings to reach 31 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 28–31 °C outcomes. Updated numerical guidance and Hong Kong Observatory briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,570วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a mix of showers and variable cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 4 that is likely to limit peak insolation and keep the daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Persistent humidity, southeasterly flow, and possible convective activity introduce uncertainty, as thicker cloud decks or earlier rainfall can suppress temperatures by 1–2 °C through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings to reach 31 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 28–31 °C outcomes. Updated numerical guidance and Hong Kong Observatory briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,570วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a mix of showers and variable cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 4 that is likely to limit peak insolation and keep the daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Persistent humidity, southeasterly flow, and possible convective activity introduce uncertainty, as thicker cloud decks or earlier rainfall can suppress temperatures by 1–2 °C through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings to reach 31 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 28–31 °C outcomes. Updated numerical guidance and Hong Kong Observatory briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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