**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?
28°C 38%
29°C 34%
27°C 14%
30°C 10%
ใหม่
$11,816 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$11,816 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
14%
28°C
38%
29°C
34%
30°C
10%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 38%
29°C 34%
27°C 14%
30°C 10%
ใหม่
$11,816 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$11,816 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
24°C or below
$411 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$271 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$1,604 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$3,979 ปริมาณ
14%
28°C
$1,261 ปริมาณ
38%
29°C
$1,177 ปริมาณ
34%
30°C
$1,174 ปริมาณ
10%
31°C
$870 ปริมาณ
2%
32°C
$434 ปริมาณ
2%
33°C
$392 ปริมาณ
<1%
34°C or higher
$244 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,816วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,816วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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