The closely matched probabilities around 68–73°F reflect substantial uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts for New York City, where ensemble model spreads from the National Weather Service show daily maxima sensitive to subtle shifts in boundary-layer mixing, warm-air advection ahead of a weak trough, and the strength of the sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on the precise position of a surface high and resultant dew-point gradients, producing a range of outcomes that traders are pricing with real capital. Historical mid-September climatology places the typical high near 75°F, yet current guidance emphasizes the potential for modest cooling if onshore flow strengthens, with updated model cycles and surface observations expected to narrow the distribution ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in NYC on September 20?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 20?
68-69°F 37%
70-71°F 28%
72-73°F 22%
66-67°F 19%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
59°F or below
5%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
37%
70-71°F
28%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
11%
78°F or higher
6%
68-69°F 37%
70-71°F 28%
72-73°F 22%
66-67°F 19%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
59°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
60-61°F
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
62-63°F
$0 ปริมาณ
6%
64-65°F
$0 ปริมาณ
8%
66-67°F
$0 ปริมาณ
19%
68-69°F
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
70-71°F
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
74-75°F
$0 ปริมาณ
19%
76-77°F
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
78°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities around 68–73°F reflect substantial uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts for New York City, where ensemble model spreads from the National Weather Service show daily maxima sensitive to subtle shifts in boundary-layer mixing, warm-air advection ahead of a weak trough, and the strength of the sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on the precise position of a surface high and resultant dew-point gradients, producing a range of outcomes that traders are pricing with real capital. Historical mid-September climatology places the typical high near 75°F, yet current guidance emphasizes the potential for modest cooling if onshore flow strengthens, with updated model cycles and surface observations expected to narrow the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 18, 2026, 2:55 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2026, 2:55 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities around 68–73°F reflect substantial uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts for New York City, where ensemble model spreads from the National Weather Service show daily maxima sensitive to subtle shifts in boundary-layer mixing, warm-air advection ahead of a weak trough, and the strength of the sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on the precise position of a surface high and resultant dew-point gradients, producing a range of outcomes that traders are pricing with real capital. Historical mid-September climatology places the typical high near 75°F, yet current guidance emphasizes the potential for modest cooling if onshore flow strengthens, with updated model cycles and surface observations expected to narrow the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2026, 2:55 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around 68–73°F reflect substantial uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts for New York City, where ensemble model spreads from the National Weather Service show daily maxima sensitive to subtle shifts in boundary-layer mixing, warm-air advection ahead of a weak trough, and the strength of the sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on the precise position of a surface high and resultant dew-point gradients, producing a range of outcomes that traders are pricing with real capital. Historical mid-September climatology places the typical high near 75°F, yet current guidance emphasizes the potential for modest cooling if onshore flow strengthens, with updated model cycles and surface observations expected to narrow the distribution ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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