The closely matched market-implied odds for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on September 18 stem primarily from ensemble forecast spread in numerical weather models, with the subtropical ridge expected to deliver typical late-summer warmth but variable cloud cover and moisture potentially capping or boosting daytime heating. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models shows consensus around seasonal norms of 31–32°C, tempered by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and any overnight rain that could alter surface temperatures. Historical September maxima average near 31°C, and traders appear to weigh these baselines against short-term model runs that diverge on wind patterns and humidity levels ahead of the resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 18?
32°C 38%
31°C 37%
30°C 14%
33°C 11%
ใหม่
$15,677 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$15,677 ปริมาณ
Sep 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
14%
31°C
37%
32°C
38%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
32°C 38%
31°C 37%
30°C 14%
33°C 11%
ใหม่
$15,677 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$15,677 ปริมาณ
Sep 18, 2026
25°C or below
$1,885 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$1,550 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$1,450 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$579 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$814 ปริมาณ
3%
30°C
$778 ปริมาณ
14%
31°C
$2,148 ปริมาณ
37%
32°C
$3,181 ปริมาณ
38%
33°C
$1,212 ปริมาณ
11%
34°C
$712 ปริมาณ
2%
35°C or higher
$1,369 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market-implied odds for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on September 18 stem primarily from ensemble forecast spread in numerical weather models, with the subtropical ridge expected to deliver typical late-summer warmth but variable cloud cover and moisture potentially capping or boosting daytime heating. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models shows consensus around seasonal norms of 31–32°C, tempered by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and any overnight rain that could alter surface temperatures. Historical September maxima average near 31°C, and traders appear to weigh these baselines against short-term model runs that diverge on wind patterns and humidity levels ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,677วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market-implied odds for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on September 18 stem primarily from ensemble forecast spread in numerical weather models, with the subtropical ridge expected to deliver typical late-summer warmth but variable cloud cover and moisture potentially capping or boosting daytime heating. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models shows consensus around seasonal norms of 31–32°C, tempered by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and any overnight rain that could alter surface temperatures. Historical September maxima average near 31°C, and traders appear to weigh these baselines against short-term model runs that diverge on wind patterns and humidity levels ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,677วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on September 18 stem primarily from ensemble forecast spread in numerical weather models, with the subtropical ridge expected to deliver typical late-summer warmth but variable cloud cover and moisture potentially capping or boosting daytime heating. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models shows consensus around seasonal norms of 31–32°C, tempered by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and any overnight rain that could alter surface temperatures. Historical September maxima average near 31°C, and traders appear to weigh these baselines against short-term model runs that diverge on wind patterns and humidity levels ahead of the resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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