Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 12?
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,548 ปริมาณ
$41,548 ปริมาณ
May 12, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
Yes
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,548 ปริมาณ
$41,548 ปริมาณ
May 12, 2026
17°C or below
$3,668 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$542 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$743 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$1,161 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$3,379 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$8,668 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$5,695 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$4,919 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$3,471 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$3,623 ปริมาณ
No
27°C or higher
$5,678 ปริมาณ
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 10, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,548วันสิ้นสุด
May 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 10, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,548วันสิ้นสุด
May 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 10, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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