Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21?
38°C 51%
37°C 42%
39°C 9%
36°C 2.1%
ใหม่
$48,152 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$48,152 ปริมาณ
Jul 21, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
42%
38°C
51%
39°C
9%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 51%
37°C 42%
39°C 9%
36°C 2.1%
ใหม่
$48,152 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$48,152 ปริมาณ
Jul 21, 2026
34°C or below
$2,815 ปริมาณ
<1%
35°C
$5,441 ปริมาณ
1%
36°C
$3,781 ปริมาณ
2%
37°C
$6,956 ปริมาณ
42%
38°C
$10,387 ปริมาณ
51%
39°C
$8,162 ปริมาณ
9%
40°C
$2,697 ปริมาณ
1%
41°C
$2,440 ปริมาณ
<1%
42°C
$3,693 ปริมาณ
<1%
43°C
$1,062 ปริมาณ
<1%
44°C or higher
$718 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,152วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,152วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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