**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C. Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Lucknow on June 26?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on June 26?
41°C 100.0%
37°C or below <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$102,457 ปริมาณ
$102,457 ปริมาณ
Jun 26, 2026
37°C or below
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
Yes
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C
No
47°C or higher
No
41°C 100.0%
37°C or below <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$102,457 ปริมาณ
$102,457 ปริมาณ
Jun 26, 2026
37°C or below
$4,105 ปริมาณ
No
38°C
$3,816 ปริมาณ
No
39°C
$15,889 ปริมาณ
No
40°C
$17,475 ปริมาณ
No
41°C
$22,133 ปริมาณ
Yes
42°C
$11,080 ปริมาณ
No
43°C
$3,568 ปริมาณ
No
44°C
$1,879 ปริมาณ
No
45°C
$2,670 ปริมาณ
No
46°C
$6,476 ปริมาณ
No
47°C or higher
$13,366 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C.
Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$102,457วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C.
Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$102,457วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C. Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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