**Forecast consensus points to a high of 23–25°C in Munich on August 29, 2026, as a cooler maritime air mass arrives from the west behind a weakening frontal system.** Multiple models, including ECMWF, ICON, and GFS runs valid as of August 27, show daytime maxima near 23–24°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly flow and a modest chance of showers, limiting afternoon insolation compared with the warmer, sunnier conditions of August 27–28. This matches the historical late-August average high of ~22.8°C and explains why 24°C and 25°C together command roughly 72% of the market-implied probability. **Key differentiating factors among the tightly bunched outcomes include the precise timing and extent of cloud cover and any embedded showers, which can suppress the daily maximum by 1–3°C.** Stronger or more persistent cloud decks, or earlier arrival of the cooler advection, favor the lower side (23–24°C), while brief clearing or slightly delayed frontal timing could allow brief peaks near 25–26°C. Ensemble spread remains modest at this 48-hour lead time, but small differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind direction near the Alps can shift the realized high within that narrow range. Updated model runs and official DWD guidance over the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.