Strong vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, combined with dry mid-level air and marginal sea-surface temperatures near the storm's projected path, represents the primary driver behind the 93% market-implied probability that Tropical Storm Dolly will not reach hurricane strength. Official National Hurricane Center guidance shows Dolly as a modest system with limited convective organization, and ensemble model consensus favors gradual weakening or only marginal strengthening before the system encounters even less favorable conditions. Historical analogs from similar late-August setups reinforce low intensification odds when shear exceeds 20 knots. While an unexpected reduction in shear or northward track into warmer Gulf waters could allow rapid organization within the next 48–72 hours, current observations and forecast trends indicate such scenarios remain low-probability outliers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
7% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 3, 2026
7% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Strong vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, combined with dry mid-level air and marginal sea-surface temperatures near the storm's projected path, represents the primary driver behind the 93% market-implied probability that Tropical Storm Dolly will not reach hurricane strength. Official National Hurricane Center guidance shows Dolly as a modest system with limited convective organization, and ensemble model consensus favors gradual weakening or only marginal strengthening before the system encounters even less favorable conditions. Historical analogs from similar late-August setups reinforce low intensification odds when shear exceeds 20 knots. While an unexpected reduction in shear or northward track into warmer Gulf waters could allow rapid organization within the next 48–72 hours, current observations and forecast trends indicate such scenarios remain low-probability outliers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$290วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Strong vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, combined with dry mid-level air and marginal sea-surface temperatures near the storm's projected path, represents the primary driver behind the 93% market-implied probability that Tropical Storm Dolly will not reach hurricane strength. Official National Hurricane Center guidance shows Dolly as a modest system with limited convective organization, and ensemble model consensus favors gradual weakening or only marginal strengthening before the system encounters even less favorable conditions. Historical analogs from similar late-August setups reinforce low intensification odds when shear exceeds 20 knots. While an unexpected reduction in shear or northward track into warmer Gulf waters could allow rapid organization within the next 48–72 hours, current observations and forecast trends indicate such scenarios remain low-probability outliers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$290วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Strong vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, combined with dry mid-level air and marginal sea-surface temperatures near the storm's projected path, represents the primary driver behind the 93% market-implied probability that Tropical Storm Dolly will not reach hurricane strength. Official National Hurricane Center guidance shows Dolly as a modest system with limited convective organization, and ensemble model consensus favors gradual weakening or only marginal strengthening before the system encounters even less favorable conditions. Historical analogs from similar late-August setups reinforce low intensification odds when shear exceeds 20 knots. While an unexpected reduction in shear or northward track into warmer Gulf waters could allow rapid organization within the next 48–72 hours, current observations and forecast trends indicate such scenarios remain low-probability outliers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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