A persistent heat dome has driven elevated temperatures across the Northeast through early July, with official National Weather Service guidance forecasting a July 4 high near 95°F amid mostly sunny skies transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms. Model consensus from recent runs supports mid-90s readings as the heat wave eases from prior peaks near 100°F, though variable humidity, cloud cover timing, and convective development introduce uncertainty in whether the daily maximum reaches 96–99°F. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these bins because small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer mixing could sustain warmer conditions, while stronger storms or earlier mixing would cap values closer to 94–95°F. Updated NWS and mesoscale model guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.