Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Shenzhen on July 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 4?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,249 ปริมาณ
$111,249 ปริมาณ
Jul 4, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,249 ปริมาณ
$111,249 ปริมาณ
Jul 4, 2026
23°C or below
$2,546 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$14,611 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$7,005 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$7,861 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$10,448 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$10,846 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$16,559 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$10,172 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$8,329 ปริมาณ
Yes
32°C
$9,236 ปริมาณ
No
33°C or higher
$13,636 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$111,249วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$111,249วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย