Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 6?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 6?
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$73,420 ปริมาณ
$73,420 ปริมาณ
May 6, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$73,420 ปริมาณ
$73,420 ปริมาณ
May 6, 2026
22°C or below
$856 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$476 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$1,021 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$3,521 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$24,842 ปริมาณ
Yes
27°C
$10,805 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$18,846 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$5,326 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$4,236 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$2,427 ปริมาณ
No
32°C or higher
$1,064 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$73,420วันสิ้นสุด
May 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$73,420วันสิ้นสุด
May 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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