Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on April 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 25?
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$121,380 ปริมาณ
$121,380 ปริมาณ
Apr 25, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$121,380 ปริมาณ
$121,380 ปริมาณ
Apr 25, 2026
9°C or below
$2,488 ปริมาณ
No
10°C
$2,677 ปริมาณ
No
11°C
$5,245 ปริมาณ
No
12°C
$3,556 ปริมาณ
No
13°C
$4,626 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$10,893 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$31,486 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$16,644 ปริมาณ
Yes
17°C
$23,284 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$11,824 ปริมาณ
No
19°C or higher
$8,658 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 23, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$121,380วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 25, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 23, 2026, 12:14 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$121,380วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 25, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 23, 2026, 12:14 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport on April 25, driven by official hourly observations from the automated weather station, which peaked at this mark midday under mostly sunny skies and developing northerly winds advecting mild maritime air. This aligns precisely with MetService's extended forecast issued April 22, projecting a 16°C maximum amid stable autumn conditions consistent with NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook for April highs around 15–17°C. Historical climatology supports this, as Wellington's April average daily maximum is approximately 16°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clear-sky heating spike or northerly surge before sunset, but declining solar angles and model consensus indicate low risk, with final daily summaries expected from MetService shortly after midnight.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย