Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on May 5?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 5?
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$67,272 ปริมาณ
$67,272 ปริมาณ
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$67,272 ปริมาณ
$67,272 ปริมาณ
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
$2,514 ปริมาณ
No
11°C
$570 ปริมาณ
No
12°C
$1,178 ปริมาณ
No
13°C
$2,499 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$11,780 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$18,526 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$12,393 ปริมาณ
Yes
17°C
$6,427 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$5,447 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$3,065 ปริมาณ
No
20°C or higher
$2,873 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$67,272วันสิ้นสุด
May 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$67,272วันสิ้นสุด
May 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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