The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว25-30% 32%
30-35% 24%
20-25% 22%
<20% 19%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
16%
20-25%
22%
25-30%
32%
30-35%
24%
35-40%
10%
40%+
5%
25-30% 32%
30-35% 24%
20-25% 22%
<20% 19%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
$349 ปริมาณ
16%
20-25%
$114 ปริมาณ
22%
25-30%
$273 ปริมาณ
32%
30-35%
$132 ปริมาณ
24%
35-40%
$113 ปริมาณ
10%
40%+
$120 ปริมาณ
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,103วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,103วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย