Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer’s former seat sits in a narrow band around 35-40% according to current trader pricing, reflecting a projected decline from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. The contest features Labour’s local candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, with recent Camden ward results from May 2026 showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. These figures, alongside demographic models projecting a low-40s Labour share under current national conditions, anchor expectations of a reduced but still leading performance for the governing party. Low overall turnout typical of by-elections, combined with the seat’s progressive voter base and limited campaigning time since nominations closed on 15 September, sustains the close contest between the 30-35% and 35-40% bands. Any late shifts in local turnout or differential mobilisation between Labour and Green supporters could widen or narrow the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว35-40% 26%
30-35% 21%
50%+ 20%
45-50% 19%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
12%
30-35%
31%
35-40%
23%
40-45%
18%
45-50%
19%
50%+
20%
35-40% 26%
30-35% 21%
50%+ 20%
45-50% 19%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
$27 ปริมาณ
12%
30-35%
$26 ปริมาณ
31%
35-40%
$37 ปริมาณ
23%
40-45%
$29 ปริมาณ
18%
45-50%
$6 ปริมาณ
19%
50%+
$88 ปริมาณ
20%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer’s former seat sits in a narrow band around 35-40% according to current trader pricing, reflecting a projected decline from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. The contest features Labour’s local candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, with recent Camden ward results from May 2026 showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. These figures, alongside demographic models projecting a low-40s Labour share under current national conditions, anchor expectations of a reduced but still leading performance for the governing party. Low overall turnout typical of by-elections, combined with the seat’s progressive voter base and limited campaigning time since nominations closed on 15 September, sustains the close contest between the 30-35% and 35-40% bands. Any late shifts in local turnout or differential mobilisation between Labour and Green supporters could widen or narrow the outcome.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$213วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer’s former seat sits in a narrow band around 35-40% according to current trader pricing, reflecting a projected decline from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. The contest features Labour’s local candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, with recent Camden ward results from May 2026 showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. These figures, alongside demographic models projecting a low-40s Labour share under current national conditions, anchor expectations of a reduced but still leading performance for the governing party. Low overall turnout typical of by-elections, combined with the seat’s progressive voter base and limited campaigning time since nominations closed on 15 September, sustains the close contest between the 30-35% and 35-40% bands. Any late shifts in local turnout or differential mobilisation between Labour and Green supporters could widen or narrow the outcome.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$213วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer’s former seat sits in a narrow band around 35-40% according to current trader pricing, reflecting a projected decline from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. The contest features Labour’s local candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, with recent Camden ward results from May 2026 showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. These figures, alongside demographic models projecting a low-40s Labour share under current national conditions, anchor expectations of a reduced but still leading performance for the governing party. Low overall turnout typical of by-elections, combined with the seat’s progressive voter base and limited campaigning time since nominations closed on 15 September, sustains the close contest between the 30-35% and 35-40% bands. Any late shifts in local turnout or differential mobilisation between Labour and Green supporters could widen or narrow the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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