Mid-decade redistricting enacted by Texas Republicans in 2025 and upheld for 2026 targets five Democratic-held districts, including those of Marc Veasey, Vicente Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Al Green, consolidating urban Democratic voters and shifting South Texas boundaries. This structural change is projected to produce a net loss of roughly two Democratic seats from the current 13, though outcomes hinge on the national environment where recent generic ballot polls show Democrats ahead by several points. Primary results from March 2026, Latino voter fluidity, and turnout in battleground districts around Houston, Dallas, and the Rio Grande Valley introduce variability that keeps the range of likely Democratic totals tightly clustered between 10 and 13. Late-cycle developments such as additional retirements, candidate strength, or shifts in the congressional vote margin could separate the probabilities around the 11-seat consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว11 23%
10 15%
12 13%
13 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
<8
1%
8
8%
9
12%
10
15%
11
23%
12
13%
13
13%
14+
13%
11 23%
10 15%
12 13%
13 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
<8
$102 ปริมาณ
1%
8
$3,228 ปริมาณ
8%
9
$714 ปริมาณ
12%
10
$229 ปริมาณ
15%
11
$453 ปริมาณ
23%
12
$186 ปริมาณ
13%
13
$115 ปริมาณ
13%
14+
$135 ปริมาณ
13%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Mid-decade redistricting enacted by Texas Republicans in 2025 and upheld for 2026 targets five Democratic-held districts, including those of Marc Veasey, Vicente Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Al Green, consolidating urban Democratic voters and shifting South Texas boundaries. This structural change is projected to produce a net loss of roughly two Democratic seats from the current 13, though outcomes hinge on the national environment where recent generic ballot polls show Democrats ahead by several points. Primary results from March 2026, Latino voter fluidity, and turnout in battleground districts around Houston, Dallas, and the Rio Grande Valley introduce variability that keeps the range of likely Democratic totals tightly clustered between 10 and 13. Late-cycle developments such as additional retirements, candidate strength, or shifts in the congressional vote margin could separate the probabilities around the 11-seat consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,161วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Mid-decade redistricting enacted by Texas Republicans in 2025 and upheld for 2026 targets five Democratic-held districts, including those of Marc Veasey, Vicente Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Al Green, consolidating urban Democratic voters and shifting South Texas boundaries. This structural change is projected to produce a net loss of roughly two Democratic seats from the current 13, though outcomes hinge on the national environment where recent generic ballot polls show Democrats ahead by several points. Primary results from March 2026, Latino voter fluidity, and turnout in battleground districts around Houston, Dallas, and the Rio Grande Valley introduce variability that keeps the range of likely Democratic totals tightly clustered between 10 and 13. Late-cycle developments such as additional retirements, candidate strength, or shifts in the congressional vote margin could separate the probabilities around the 11-seat consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,161วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mid-decade redistricting enacted by Texas Republicans in 2025 and upheld for 2026 targets five Democratic-held districts, including those of Marc Veasey, Vicente Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Al Green, consolidating urban Democratic voters and shifting South Texas boundaries. This structural change is projected to produce a net loss of roughly two Democratic seats from the current 13, though outcomes hinge on the national environment where recent generic ballot polls show Democrats ahead by several points. Primary results from March 2026, Latino voter fluidity, and turnout in battleground districts around Houston, Dallas, and the Rio Grande Valley introduce variability that keeps the range of likely Democratic totals tightly clustered between 10 and 13. Late-cycle developments such as additional retirements, candidate strength, or shifts in the congressional vote margin could separate the probabilities around the 11-seat consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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