Indonesia’s longstanding position conditions any diplomatic normalization with Israel on prior Israeli recognition of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto at the UN General Assembly in September 2025 and reiterated by the foreign ministry in 2026. Prabowo has also acknowledged Israel’s security needs while signaling openness to ties once that threshold is met, yet planned high-level visits have been denied and no formal steps have followed the 2025 Gaza ceasefire. Quiet trade and limited people-to-people contacts continue to grow, but domestic sensitivities in the world’s largest Muslim-majority country and the absence of progress on a two-state solution keep full diplomatic relations unlikely by late 2026. Traders appear to price in these structural barriers and the need for a Palestinian breakthrough before any announcement.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMarket falls sharply as no concrete diplomatic announcements materialize
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
Disappointment over lack of formal steps caused a swift decline.
Market briefly rallies on speculation of incremental diplomatic progress between Indonesia and Israel
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%13%
Speculation about phased cooperation raised hopes temporarily.
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