**Recent official forecasts for Chongqing on September 4, 2026, indicate overnight lows of 24–26°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk.** This places the implied probability tightly between 23°C and 24°C (49.5–51%), reflecting model consensus from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and regional guidance showing stable high-pressure conditions. Chongqing’s subtropical monsoon climate and Sichuan Basin topography drive these temperatures: daytime heat (highs 33–36°C) from solar heating and downslope warming gives way to efficient nocturnal radiative cooling under light winds (typically 1–3 m/s) and moderate humidity (40–60%). Dew points around 18–21°C limit further drops, while any increase in cloud cover or slight southeasterly flow can raise the minimum by 1°C. Historical early-September baselines (average lows ~23–25°C) align with current patterns, with no incoming cold fronts or monsoon surges expected to push readings below 22°C or above 26°C on this date. The close 23–24°C spread arises from minor ensemble differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing; traders weigh the latest model runs showing a slight bias toward 24°C amid ongoing warm, dry conditions. Resolution will hinge on official 24-hour minimum observations from central stations.