Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in London on May 4?
Lowest temperature in London on May 4?
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$25,819 ปริมาณ
$25,819 ปริมาณ
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$25,819 ปริมาณ
$25,819 ปริมาณ
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
$7,309 ปริมาณ
No
6°C
$3,203 ปริมาณ
No
7°C
$893 ปริมาณ
No
8°C
$2,043 ปริมาณ
No
9°C
$804 ปริมาณ
No
10°C
$800 ปริมาณ
No
11°C
$1,284 ปริมาณ
No
12°C
$4,692 ปริมาณ
Yes
13°C
$1,127 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$1,576 ปริมาณ
No
15°C or higher
$2,089 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,819วันสิ้นสุด
May 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$25,819วันสิ้นสุด
May 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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