Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?
24°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 ปริมาณ
$92,911 ปริมาณ
Jul 18, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 ปริมาณ
$92,911 ปริมาณ
Jul 18, 2026
23°C or below
$5,158 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$5,202 ปริมาณ
Yes
25°C
$20,915 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$23,410 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$4,775 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$12,798 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$6,126 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$5,940 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$7,394 ปริมาณ
No
32°C
$726 ปริมาณ
No
33°C or higher
$468 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$92,911วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$92,911วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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