The market's strong 92% implied probability for no megaquake by June 30 reflects the well-established global frequency of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes, which average roughly one per year according to USGS historical records. With only 27 days remaining and no magnitude 8+ events recorded in 2026 so far—the largest being a 7.5 in Tonga—trader consensus aligns with the low daily hazard rate and absence of anomalous seismic signals or model indications of imminent great events on major megathrust zones. While short-term clustering can occur, the narrow window and lack of triggering foreshocks or unusual strain accumulation make a sudden shift improbable absent new monitoring data from agencies like the USGS.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$69,331 ปริมาณ
$69,331 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
$69,331 ปริมาณ
$69,331 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's strong 92% implied probability for no megaquake by June 30 reflects the well-established global frequency of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes, which average roughly one per year according to USGS historical records. With only 27 days remaining and no magnitude 8+ events recorded in 2026 so far—the largest being a 7.5 in Tonga—trader consensus aligns with the low daily hazard rate and absence of anomalous seismic signals or model indications of imminent great events on major megathrust zones. While short-term clustering can occur, the narrow window and lack of triggering foreshocks or unusual strain accumulation make a sudden shift improbable absent new monitoring data from agencies like the USGS.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$69,331วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's strong 92% implied probability for no megaquake by June 30 reflects the well-established global frequency of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes, which average roughly one per year according to USGS historical records. With only 27 days remaining and no magnitude 8+ events recorded in 2026 so far—the largest being a 7.5 in Tonga—trader consensus aligns with the low daily hazard rate and absence of anomalous seismic signals or model indications of imminent great events on major megathrust zones. While short-term clustering can occur, the narrow window and lack of triggering foreshocks or unusual strain accumulation make a sudden shift improbable absent new monitoring data from agencies like the USGS.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$69,331วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market's strong 92% implied probability for no megaquake by June 30 reflects the well-established global frequency of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes, which average roughly one per year according to USGS historical records. With only 27 days remaining and no magnitude 8+ events recorded in 2026 so far—the largest being a 7.5 in Tonga—trader consensus aligns with the low daily hazard rate and absence of anomalous seismic signals or model indications of imminent great events on major megathrust zones. While short-term clustering can occur, the narrow window and lack of triggering foreshocks or unusual strain accumulation make a sudden shift improbable absent new monitoring data from agencies like the USGS.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย