**The MO-02 general election between incumbent Republican Ann Wagner and Democrat Fred Wellman remains closely contested in trader pricing, with win probabilities near even and margin buckets clustered in the single digits to low teens.** Wagner secured her nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Wellman prevailed on the Democratic side after a contested race. A May 2026 FM3 poll showed Wagner leading 44-41 among likely voters, within the margin of error, and the district’s R+6 PVI plus suburban St. Louis demographics have drawn sustained DCCC attention. Recent redistricting changes and a potential veto referendum on the maps add uncertainty that could alter the electorate, while the national midterm environment for the president’s party further compresses the expected margin relative to Wagner’s prior double-digit victories. Late-cycle polling, fundraising, and turnout among college-educated voters in the St. Louis suburbs will be key variables that could separate the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMO-02 House Election Margin of Victory
MO-02 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 15-18% 37%
Republican 12-15% 37%
Republican 9-12% 37%
Democrat 0-3% 37%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 18%+
15%
Republican 15-18%
37%
Republican 12-15%
37%
Republican 9-12%
37%
Republican 6-9%
36%
Republican 3-6%
36%
Republican 0-3%
36%
Democrat 0-3%
37%
Democrat 3-6%
37%
Democrat 6%+
36%
Republican 15-18% 37%
Republican 12-15% 37%
Republican 9-12% 37%
Democrat 0-3% 37%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 18%+
$0 ปริมาณ
15%
Republican 15-18%
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
Republican 12-15%
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
Republican 9-12%
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
Republican 6-9%
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
Republican 3-6%
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
Republican 0-3%
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
Democrat 0-3%
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
Democrat 3-6%
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
Democrat 6%+
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
The 2026 MO-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The MO-02 general election between incumbent Republican Ann Wagner and Democrat Fred Wellman remains closely contested in trader pricing, with win probabilities near even and margin buckets clustered in the single digits to low teens.** Wagner secured her nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Wellman prevailed on the Democratic side after a contested race. A May 2026 FM3 poll showed Wagner leading 44-41 among likely voters, within the margin of error, and the district’s R+6 PVI plus suburban St. Louis demographics have drawn sustained DCCC attention. Recent redistricting changes and a potential veto referendum on the maps add uncertainty that could alter the electorate, while the national midterm environment for the president’s party further compresses the expected margin relative to Wagner’s prior double-digit victories. Late-cycle polling, fundraising, and turnout among college-educated voters in the St. Louis suburbs will be key variables that could separate the outcome.
The 2026 MO-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MO-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The MO-02 general election between incumbent Republican Ann Wagner and Democrat Fred Wellman remains closely contested in trader pricing, with win probabilities near even and margin buckets clustered in the single digits to low teens.** Wagner secured her nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Wellman prevailed on the Democratic side after a contested race. A May 2026 FM3 poll showed Wagner leading 44-41 among likely voters, within the margin of error, and the district’s R+6 PVI plus suburban St. Louis demographics have drawn sustained DCCC attention. Recent redistricting changes and a potential veto referendum on the maps add uncertainty that could alter the electorate, while the national midterm environment for the president’s party further compresses the expected margin relative to Wagner’s prior double-digit victories. Late-cycle polling, fundraising, and turnout among college-educated voters in the St. Louis suburbs will be key variables that could separate the outcome.
The 2026 MO-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The MO-02 general election between incumbent Republican Ann Wagner and Democrat Fred Wellman remains closely contested in trader pricing, with win probabilities near even and margin buckets clustered in the single digits to low teens.** Wagner secured her nomination decisively in the August 4 primary, while Wellman prevailed on the Democratic side after a contested race. A May 2026 FM3 poll showed Wagner leading 44-41 among likely voters, within the margin of error, and the district’s R+6 PVI plus suburban St. Louis demographics have drawn sustained DCCC attention. Recent redistricting changes and a potential veto referendum on the maps add uncertainty that could alter the electorate, while the national midterm environment for the president’s party further compresses the expected margin relative to Wagner’s prior double-digit victories. Late-cycle polling, fundraising, and turnout among college-educated voters in the St. Louis suburbs will be key variables that could separate the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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